Setting Your Own House on Fire or Spending on IFA's...which makes more sense?!?!?!

Contributed by: Swishnev23

The reason for this exercise is to analyze the International Free Agent (IFA) market and the amount of money that owners are spending to sign these players. I’m new to this game, and not very good at it, so I’m analyzing all kinds of data to try to find out what the best strategies are to win consistently. This season I thoroughly enjoyed the blog posts regarding the IFA’s but was a bit distressed over the initial analysis of the players in comparison to the amount of money owners, including myself, were spending. Therefore, I set out to find out if spending in the IFA market is worth it. I’m not a statistician/mathematician so some of the verbage and calculations could be off. I do have the rough data available so please send me a TC message if you’d like to analyze it yourself

I only analyzed the information from Season 1-10 because once I got around Season 9 the players were still so young that they weren’t providing much tangible information to the exercise. I also only analyzed the IFA signings for $5,000,000 or greater for reasons I will detail below. Any awards won during Season 15 were not included, either. Onto the numbers….

Financials: From Season 1 to Season 10 there were 158 IFA’s signed in our world for a total of $1,593,100,000. Yes, that’s 1.5 billion. That’s an average of $10,082,911 per player. To give a little bit of perspective, at the same time there were nine first round #1 draft picks signed for a total of $43,540,000, which is an average of $4,832,777 per player. I used the $5,000,000 cut-off during analysis because I figured that would be a legitimate amount to pay the first pick in the amateur draft. As you can see, the average IFA signing is for double that amount. There are some statistical outliers are there have been seven (7) players signed in the IFA market for more than $20,000,000 but I don’t feel that the quantity is large enough to greatly skew the data. Financially speaking, on average, we are paying double what we’d pay for the #1 pick in the amateur draft.

Player Performance: In grading player performance I used only awards that players could earn as a guide to how successful they were. I used the following awards as my guides: Rookie of the Year (ROY), All-Star Game appearances (ASG), Gold Glove Awards (GG), Silver Slugger Awards (SS), Most Valuable Player Awards (MVP), World Series Rings (WS), Cy Young Awards (CY) and Fireman of the Year Awards (FOY). My assumption was that if we were paying double what we’d normally pay for the #1 pick in the amateur draft then we’d want franchise changing players that would/could accrue multiple major awards. This analysis also does not take into account team needs/wants for each individual team which at times can outweigh the financial risk teams are willing to take on the open market.

From the 158 IFA’s in the study here is how it broke down:

ROY - 2 players
ASG - 81 appearances between 33 players
GG - 27 awards between 15 players
SS - 27 awards between 11 players
MVP - 4 awards between 3 players
WS - 32 rings between 25 players
CY - 1 award
FOY - 1 award

These statistics are what caught my attention because if we are spending these amounts of money on IFA’s then the return should be greater. We see that while 21% of the players in the study have made an All-Star Game appearance and nearly 16% of them have a World Series ring but only 1% have won an MVP award and less than 1% have won a Cy Young or Fireman of the Year Award. There was not an IFA for less than $15 million that garnered the MVP or Cy Young Award. The FOY Award winner signed for $8,200,000. Based on the data/bonus information, the IFA’s signed for $10,000,000+ were the recepients of these awards. Very few players that signed for $7,000,000 or less earned awards and none did so more than once.

I’ll leave you to make your own conclusion as to whether or not the budget you set aside for IFA’s is worth it because each team has its own needs that it needs to fill.

THE WEEK IN WRIGLEYVILLE S-15 #7

TRADES
No trades this week


M L INJURIES
John Jodie
This Bench player will be on the DL for 2 weeks. Montreal will not miss him. he's batting under the Mendoza line.

Emmanuel Soto
On the otherhand the Prairie Dogs will probably miss Emmanuel "D" Soto. He will be on the DL for a month.

Don Nunnally
The Prairie Dogs lose their GG Centerfielder for 3 weeks. The P Dogs are starting to look like Lemmings.

INTERNATIONALS

Omar Arias Fargo Prairie Dogs Age: 18 B/T: L/R Born: Cumana, VE Position(s): SS View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Just a minor Pup

Eugenio Gutierrez Vancouver Totems Age: 19 B/T: R/R Born: Aragua, VE Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

5.5 million and a S/T invite for this defensive minor leaguer. Had a pile of prospect cash to burn.

Cesar Roque Burlington Coat Factory Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Guayubin, DO Position(s): P (P) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

2.4 million for this M L bullpen prospect. A little wild ......but nice splits.

Trenidad Cerveza Scottsdale Shock Squad Age: 18 B/T: L/L Born: Los Llanos, DO Position(s): P (SuA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

This innings eater could be a good Mopup or Long relief.

Melvin Hukata Charlotte Sometimes Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Tokyo, JP Position(s): 3B View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Just a minor leaguer.. Sometimes your the nail....Sometimes your the Hammer.

Jose Cordero Boise Brown Sox Age: 19 B/T: R/R Born: San Francisco De Macoris, DO Position(s): 3B View Hardball Dynasty Profile

1.8 million for this AA/AAA power hitter.

Ricardo Lopez Tampa Bay Stars Age: 19 B/T: S/R Born: Sabana Grande De Boya, DO Position(s): P (P) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

830k and a S/T invite for this prospect. Overall doesn't mean Crap. He may get a shot.

Vladimir Gonzales Vancouver Totems Age: 18 B/T: L/L Born: Villa Union, MX Position(s): RF/1B/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

I had 2 million left and was suprised to get this iffy prospect. Poor glove may be the reason!!

Enrique Toregas Scottsdale Shock Squad Age: 19 B/T: S/R Born: El Seibo, DO Position(s): SS View Hardball Dynasty Profile

5 million for this defensive prospect. Poor eyesight may pose a problem. Still a nice pickup.

Willie Mesa Charlotte Sometimes Age: 21 B/T: L/L Born: Boca Chica, DO Position(s): P (SuA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

669k for this nice young closing prospect. Hammertime!!!

Al Saenz Cincinnati Howlers Age: 19 B/T: S/L Born: Tela, HN Position(s): CF/3B/2B/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

1.2 million and a S/T invite for this AA/AAA prospect. Spend it if you got it!

Juan Rodriguez Helena Barking Moonbats Age: 19 B/T: R/R Born: Villa Vazquez, DO Position(s): 3B View Hardball Dynasty Profile

AA/AAA slugger. worth 882k......

THE WEEK IN WRIGLEYVILLE S-15 #6

TRADES
The ATLANTA PEACHFUZZ traded Ramiro Osoria and Joe Cunnane to the TAMPA BAY STARS for Don Hyzdu , Jeffrey Blackley and Claudio Schmidt
Tampa gets some ML bullpen help and a prospect.Atlanta gets 2 young M L Players and a prospect.

The SYRACUSE MOOSE traded R.J. Padilla to the TAMPA BAY STARS for Curtis Hutchinson
Tampa gets a DH. The Moose get a well traveled Relief pitcher.

The CHICAGO BLEACHER BUMS traded Jason Ross , Jorge Posada to the MADISON MUSKELLUNGES for Andres Ferrer and Timo Mahoney
Madison picks up a Young ML starting pitcher and next seasons CF'er. Chicago gets a veteran Starting pitcher and a prospect. 

The BOISE BROWN SOX traded David Cerda to the MADISON MUSKELLUNGES for Al Vincente , Howard McGehee and Victor Galarraga
Madison gets a young slugger. Boise gets 3 pitching prospects ..one is already on the DL.

The FARGO PRAIRIE DOGS traded Mike Tewksbury to the HELENA BARKING MOONBATS for Pablo Aramboles , Rickey Tucker and Bryan Buckley
Helena gets a Big Bat..Great just what they need. Fargo gets a DH that will be looking for free agent money next year. and 2 pitching prospects.

M L INJURIES
David Nunez
This cat is ready to come back off the DL. Little back pain is all.

Richard Nichols
Another Strain here. But this is an Elbow. He's ready to get back on the Prairie Dog Mound.

James Gonzales
This R-5 Pickup is on the 15. Probably not his last.

Catfish Lee
Ouch!!! This kid will miss the rest of the season. And it ruined any chance of a ML career.

Santiago Torres
This Howler is finished with his yearly stay on the DL. Now perhaps Torres can get back to work.

Kelvim Yamamoto
A broken arm will keep this salmonbelly out for 2 months. Not gonna help him in free agency next year.

Jaret Hoffman
This 32 year old has a strained Hammy. Must be feeling old.

Rich Ward
This 10 million dollar a year player was traded to Boise this year. A strained MCL will sideline him for 2 weeks.

Bennie Davis
Another strain.....Another 2 weeks. Just Peachy!!

Brady Sefcik
This is what I wrote last Week."Brady "Suffering" Sefcik is on the Major League DL for the 7th time. He will be back eaning his 5 mil in a couple of weeks." Suffering Succotash!!! He's back on the 15 day DL. Tampa may be rethinking that Extension.


Santiago Martinez
This Player is out a couple of weeks. The Moose will be Loose on the free agent market next year.

Del Lopez
This Moonbat Sprained a Wing. He'll be sucking blood in 2 months.

Ross Bush
This former 10th pick overall found himself on the market without a home. Charlotte picked him up on the cheap. Now he repays them by getting injured for a month.


INTERNATIONALS

Ubaldo Mairena Chicago Black Sox Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Rancho Viejo, DO Position(s): P (SP2) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Innings eater AA perhaps??

Alfredo Tejeda Chicago Black Sox Age: 18 B/T: L/L Born: Navojoa, MX Position(s): P (SP5) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

More Rookie pitching

Rafael Juarez Chicago Black Sox Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Edo Anzoategui, VE Position(s): P (P) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Again

Yuniesky Duran Chicago Black Sox Age: 20 B/T: R/R Born: Boquete, PA Position(s): P (SuA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Only 6.4 million for this nice bullpen prospect.

Gus Matsui Boise Brown Sox Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Tokyo, JP Position(s): C View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Minor league Catcher

Willie Guerrero Boise Brown Sox Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Boca Chica, DO Position(s): LF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

A Bat for AA/AAA

Tomas Aguilera Burlington Coat Factory Age: 19 B/T: S/R Born: Haina, DO Position(s): P (SuA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

1.4 million for this Closer/Setup Prospect

Esmailyn Aviles Burlington Coat Factory Age: 18 B/T: R/R Born: Hato Mayor Del Rey, DO Position(s): SS View Hardball Dynasty Profile

2.2 million for this nice defensive minor leaguer.

Al Carrasco Charlotte Sometimes Age: 19 B/T: S/R Born: Yamasa, DO Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

9.1 million for this M L defensive specialist.

Carlos Sojo Chicago Black Sox Age: 19 B/T: L/R Born: Los Llanos, DO Position(s): C View Hardball Dynasty Profile

2.7 million for this DH prospect

Vic Sierra Chicago Black Sox Age: 18 B/T: L/L Born: Chacao, VE Position(s): P (none) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Chicago is loading up on the Rookie Pitchers. Draft musta been thin??

THE WEEK IN WRIGLEYVILLE S-15 #5

TRADES
The AUSTIN CITY LIMITS traded Michael Gardner to the HOUSTON COLT 45'S for Stuart Hausmann
Austin gets a Nice defensive Catcher. Houston picks up a prospect.

The BOISE BROWN SOX traded Patsy Hartman to the FARGO PRAIRIE DOGS for Brad Cogan
Boise picks up the often traded 3rd baseman Brad "main"Cogan. Fargo gets All-Star Hartman. Both players just needed a change of scenery.


The BOISE BROWN SOX traded Tyrone Beckto the INDIANAPOLIS INDIANS for Junior Izturis
Tyrone will be bashing homers in Indianapolis. Boise gets a catching prospect that will probably be a DH

The AUSTIN CITY LIMITS traded Horacio Mesa to the MINNESOTA MISFITS for Mat Herndon and Ryan Clark
Minnesota gets some needed bullpen help. Austin gets 2 prospects in return.

The INDIANAPOLIS INDIANS traded Omar Perez to the HOUSTON COLT 45'S for Tim Powell and Juan Mota
Houston picks up former ROY Perez. The Injuns get 2 nice prospects.

The BOISE BROWN SOX traded  Harry Saberhagen to the SCOTTSDALE SHOCK SQUAD for Jose Ethier and Harry Aguilera
Boise gets a nice prospect and a throw in player. Scottsdale gets an ageing starting pitcher.

M L INJURIES
Francisco Sanchez
Francisco "Sanche" Sanchez will miss a week with a sore shoulder. Aye Caramba!!

Brady Sefcik
Brady "Suffering" Sefcik  is on the Major League DL for the 7th time. He will be back eaning his 5 mil in a couple of weeks.

Bill Neagle
The bad news: This 15.8 million dollar pitcher is on the DL. The good news: "send me the Bill" Neagle will be back in a couple of weeks.

Jarrett Tice
Jarrett " Nice" Tice will miss 2 months with a leg fracture. Suprisingly he did not take a big hit on his numbers. It's all about attitude and medical budget!!

Johnny Goldman
Johnny "Be Good" Goldman broke a  finger. Whats going on in Atlanta ??? Broken Legs and Fingers. maybe desanders is a Bully!

Miguel Martis
Another fractured Finger? Miguel "Martyr" Martis took one for the team on a inside pitch! He will be resurected in 2 weeks.

INTERNATIONALS

Neftali Martin Hartford Crushers Age: 20 B/T: R/R Born: Haina, DO Position(s): SS/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Just an extra rookie league player.

Pedro Martinez Cincinnati Howlers Age: 19 B/T: S/R Born: Sabana Grande De Boya, DO Position(s): 1B/LF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

just a S/T invite landed this slugger. Will spend most of his time at AAA. May get a shot at the Bigs.

Benito Seanez Vancouver Totems Age: 18 B/T: L/L Born: Puerto Piritu, VE Position(s): P (ClA) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Future looks bright I gotta wear Shades. May get a shot at Bigs??

Carlos Jacquez Madison Muskellunges Age: 20 B/T: R/R Born: Don Gregorio, DO Position(s): CF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Speedy Minor Leaguer.

Jorge Campos Scottsdale Shock Squad Age: 18 B/T: L/L Born: Monte Cristi, DO Position(s): P (SP1) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

2.5 million for this future mop up guy.

Javy Ciriaco Chicago Black Sox Age: 19 B/T: L/L Born: Santo Domingo, DO Position(s): 1B View Hardball Dynasty Profile

3.4 million for this slugging DH

Vicente Santos Chicago Black Sox Age: 21 B/T: R/R Born: Villa Gonzalez, DO Position(s): P (none) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Possibly a AA pitcher. Needs a DITR ferry for them splits........If Grandy doesn't get him first.